Tuesday, June 10, 2008

We Anthropogenic Global Warming skeptics are in good company, apparently

This op/ed provides a great perspective on the dangers of scientific-y alarmism, and it appears that Mark Twain might have shared my skepticism toward crystal-ball-reading scientists.(Roy Spencer -- "Bad Science: A Grand Tradition" on National Review Online):
And why should the science of global warming be so uncertain? Mostly because it is a whole lot easier to make scientific measurements than it is to figure out what those measurements are telling us about how the natural world works. The famous humorist and writer Mark Twain once said, “Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.”

I consider the theory that global warming is caused by mankind to be just one more example of the continuing tradition scientists have of extrapolating well beyond what they think they know. In his 1883 book Life on the Mississippi, Mark Twain also expressed perfectly the proclivity of scientists for turning observations of the natural world into long range predictions which were clearly outlandish.

Twain humorously extrapolated an observed change in the length of the Mississippi River forward and back in time by millions of years to demonstrate the absurdity of the conclusions one can reach when one assumes something currently observed will continue to happen at the same rate, indefinitely.

Twain famously concluded, “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture from such a trifling investment of fact.”
(emphasis added).

2 comments:

Joseph said...

You're welcome to comment on my analysis here.

nedwilliams said...

Interesting supposition, Joseph. I would be interested to hear comments (on your analysis) from someone expert in statistics or climatology (and hopefully not expert in climate alarmism). Thanks for taking the time to post and comment.